3 weeks of war, possible rate hikes, and AI's 'show me' phase: What to watch this week

Bond traders are now pricing in a 50% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by October, according to Bloomberg data, marking a stunning reversal from assumptions before the war began — and a striking comparison to the Fed's own "dot plot" predictions released Wednesday forecasting one cut to come this year, and one cut in 2027. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference Wednesday, March 18, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta) · ASSOCIATED PRESS · Lest we forget the AI trade, on Tuesday, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang managed to briefly break through the geopolitical tumult, announcing at the chip designer's annual GTC event that Nvidia will book $1 trillion in revenue on its Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips alone.